Kentucky Weather Center
with Meteorologist Chris Bailey
Kentucky Weather Center

Tracking The Rain/Snow Line

Good Tuesday everyone. Phase one of our winter storm is well underway with some of everything falling from the sky across the state to start the day out. This system is behaving very well so far with things playing out about like we expected in terms of the precipitation types and placement.

The big deal of the day will be to track the rain/snow line as it works to the north. That same line is carrying a period of freezing rain with it and that can cause a lot of headaches. So far... snows have been heaviest across the north with the south seeing a mix to rain. Above freezing temps will continue to slowly lift northward this morning as the snows make the transition to some light rains by late morning and early afternoon. There is a cutoff to just how far north and west the rain line can get. Odds favor areas along and east of a line Maysville to Lexington to Bowling Green mixing with or changing over to rain for a time today. To the west of that line... snows will likely continue and this is the area that can get several more inches today. You can track the line here...



Please keep in mind that the radar is only showing where it "thinks" the various forms of precipitation are falling.

Another helpful tool today will be the near real time temps from Kentucky Mesonet...

For some actual ground truth... I have a series of weather cams for you to check out from different points across the state...

Richmond



Harrodsburg


I-64 Jefferson/Shelby Line


Louisville


Ashland

I-75 Northern Ky Near Covington
Kentucky: I-71/I-75 at Turfway Rd.

Kentucky: I-71/I-75 at 12th St. in Covington

What happens from this point forward? Here is your breakdown...

- A big time arctic front moves quickly eastward across the state this afternoon into the evening. This will change the rain back to snow pretty quickly.

- Snows will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday with a widespread 2-4 inches of additional snow to fall. Higher amounts will be possible in some areas...especially across the higher elevations of southeastern Kentucky.

- Temps will Plummet behind the front. Readings will drop 15 degrees in just a few hours and will wind up in the teens by late evening. Winds will gust to 30-35mph creating wind chills dipping below 0 at times. The same winds will also creating blowing and drifting snows.

- The weather here Wednesday will just be flat out wicked!

- Snow showers and flurries should hang tough all the way into Thursday morning.

The overall weather pattern for the next few weeks will feature VERY cold temps with periodic snow chances. The snow that falls over the next few days has a great shot at still being on the ground in many places a week or two from now. The problem is... you may not see it because it gets covered up by new snows. Some snow showers and flurries will be possible later Friday and Saturday with the potential for a system to dive in here with accumulating snows Sunday and Monday...

Canadian Model



GFS Sunday Afternoon


Yes... even in the middle of a winter storm... the blog is already keeping you guys ahead of the game for the next potential.

Your fellow bloggers need your help as they want to know whats going on where you live. Post the weather conditions from your hometown here on the blog for all to see. I appreciate all the help you give me... and that's a fact!

More updates as needed so check back. Take care.

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Post Your Weather

Good evening everyone. Snow is quickly developing across the region from southwest to northeast and you can track it all on radar...



Here are a few cams for your tracking needs...

Richmond


Somerset


Harrodsburg


I-64 Jefferson/Shelby Line


Louisville


I will have a full update later tonight. Until then... post your weather. Take care.

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Winter Storm Warnings Expand

Good evening everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to show you how the Winter Storm Warnings have now expanded to include much of the state though Wednesday. The southern counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory during the dame time. Here is the updated map...



Snow will be breaking out from southwest to northeast later this evening into the overnight and will become mixed with some ice across the south. You can track this mess in here with regional radar...



Here are the headlines of this thing...

- Snow develops overnight with some ice possible by morning across the south. This will be a high impact event for the morning commute.

- My snow map from my last update for late tonight and early Tuesday remains unchanged.

- Temps will try to go above freezing for a few hours in most of the area... this would mean a switch to some freezing rain or light rain will take place... especially across the south and east. The deepest moisture may already be over by this time.

- Arctic front to slam in here Tuesday evening. Temps will drop by more than 10-15 degrees in just a few hours as any rains go back to snow.

- Snows will move back in Tuesday night and last through Wednesday night. High snow ratios will be with us meaning we maximize the amount of precip that falls. Several inches of snow will fall during this time.

- Winds will crank up to 30-35mph into Wednesday creating blowing and drifting snows. Wind chills will be near 0.

Overall... this is a high impact winter storm that will hit the region over the next few days. I will have more updates as needed later this evening so check back. Take care.

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Winter Storm Alert

Good afternoon everyone. We are now in full blow Winter Storm Alert mode for a system that will come at us in two pieces over the next few days. The first one comes at us overnight into the first part of Tuesday with snow and a mix of snow and freezing rain developing from south to north. This will make for a VERY messy Tuesday morning commute across the entire region.

Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and advisories are out for much of the state...



Northeastern Kentucky will be included in something before all is said and done as the NWS in Charleston jumps on board.

We have been talking about this system for several days now and the model runs continue to come in colder and colder the closer we get. This is a testament to the low level cold air that is already in place. Deep moisture will be riding northward into the region quickly this evening and overnight leading to widespread snow developing. This will switch to a period of Freezing Rain and possibly rain across parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky for a few hours Tuesday as temps make a run toward freezing or just above for a few hours. That won't last long as an arctic front blasts through here with a dramatic temp drop by late in the day.

Here is my first call for snowfall from the first part of this system...



My confidence level is not very high right now with the snow totals as I am worried about being too conservative across the east and south. I have lower totals in these areas anticipating a little greater ice potential and then rain the farther south you go.

The second half of the storm cranks up Tuesday night through Wednesday night with several inches of snow likely across the entire area. This will be a dry snow that will blow and drift as winds reach 30-35mph.  Many areas will see 6 or more inches of snow over the next 48 hours.

Wind chill readings will be very low from late Tuesday into Wednesday as well, so keep that in mind.

I will have more updates later this afternoon so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

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Snow and Ice Likely Tonight & Tuesday

Good Monday everyone. We have a whole lot of wintry weather to talk about as we have a very busy weather week that is just beginning. Our first item up for bids is a system that will roll in here later tonight into Tuesday and this is likely to be a high impact system that brings snow and some ice to the region. Then we watch more widespread snows and arctic air surge in here Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The system moving in tonight has prompted Winter Weather Advisories to be issued for of Kentucky. This begs the question... should the blog be in Winter Storm Threat mode? I am toying with it as I write this. Regardless of modes... the morning commute Tuesday is going to be nasty across the entire region. I have a map showing the wide variety of weather I am expecting...



I want to stress something here and that the bust potential with this is the opposite of our last storm as cold air is already in place and the models all coming in colder with each run. This could mean much more snow and ice than the map shows into early Tuesday bringing us to the cusp of winter storm material. Several inches of snow will be very possible for the areas that stay all snow. I am also concerned about the freezing rain threat... especially considering we have a frozen ground. The best threat for a switch to all rain will be the farther south you live and that all rain line will try to creep north by early afternoon Tuesday.

The NAM is showing the 850 0 celcius line and the 540 thickness lines staying to our south through the enitre event. This strongly suggests mainly frozen precip...

NAM Tuesday Morning



Tuesday Afternoon



Tuesday Evening


The GFS Ensembles are also having a tough time scouring out the low level co air that is alread in place...



That is one nice arctic shot blowing in here later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temps may drop by as much as 15 degrees in just a few hours when the front moves through where you live. Winds will gust up and may reach as high as 30-3mph leading to dangerously cold wind chills. Snow showers and squalls will become widespread from Tuesday night through Wednesday night and this can lay down some decent snow totals. This snow will be aided by a strong northwesterly wind flow and a high liquid to snow ratio because of the cold air in place. Some blowing and drifting of whatever snow falls is likely on Wednesday.

I have made a map of what I expect during this time in terms of a general snowfall...



I am not putting numbers out just yet... but I refer to a light snowfall as 1"-3". Again... that would NOT include the totals from tonight and Tuesday and is only for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

A few words about other weather items on my mind...

- Yet another Blizzard is likely from the DC area to New York and Boston by mid week. Amazing!!

- This pattern may bring snows into Florida late this week!

- We have to watch the southern system on Friday... that looks to stay to our south right now. But a weak system may dive in later Friday or Saturday from the northwest with some light snows.

- The pattern next week continues to be primed for snowstorms across the eastern half of the country. The retrograding look to things suggest ground zero next week may be farther west than where it sets up this week and could put this region in the middle of the game.

- If we don't hit freezing Tuesday... we may not do it for a week... at least! This is a COLD pattern for most of the country as February goes right to the place the blog forecast it to go to weeks ago.

Speaking of the snows across the DC area... check out this cool time lapse snowfall video...

I will have several updates out today so please check back. If you have travel plans later tonight into Tuesday and Wednesday... you really need to stay on top of this as this will be a high impact event. You can also look for some quick updates through Twitter so sign up to follow me @KentuckyWeather. My twitter feed is also in the top right hand corner of this blog.

Take care.

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Winter Storm Watch North and West

Good Super Sunday Evening everyone. If you are a fan of winter weather... the week ahead is sure to be super in a lot of ways as we have snow and cold that will be the main players.

Parts of the state are now under a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday. This is for parts of northern Kentucky and southwest along to Ohio River toward Paducah. Here is a look...



The models today continue to come in with a colder setup for Monday night and Tuesday for most areas. They are still trying to bring in some slightly warmer surface temps to parts of the state... even with the colder setup aloft. The latest NAM matches up withe the European model with the colder solution aloft...

Tuesday Morning


Tuesday Afternoon


That certainly suggests good period of snow and ice later Monday night into the first part of Tuesday for many areas. You can see the European Model for Tuesday Morning looked very similar with the 0c 850 line being south into Tennessee...



We will fine tune that Monday night and Tuesday forecast with the overnight update. You will notice by Wednesday morning that wind and widespread snows should engulf the area. That setup is enough to produce some decent snows around here into Wednesday night. You can see this a little better on the GFS Ensembles...



There is a STOUT upper level system swinging through here during this time as you can see with the thermal min passing through on those charts.

A few of the models are TRYING to bring something across the south late week into early in the weekend that would be trying to hook up with a system diving in from the northwest. Here is the Canadian Model...



I will have a full update later tonight. Time to watch the Super Bowl.

Take care.

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Active Winter Continues

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for blogging. Let me start out by saying that I have a backlog of emails to answer and I am hoping to put a dent in that this weekend. If you emailed me at any point over the past few months and didn't hear back... hang tough as I am getting there. Several hundred emails await.

In terms of the weather... our very active winter pattern continues across much of the country and the upcoming week looks pretty darn wintry around here. That won't be the case today so much as some sunshine returns. Temps this morning will crash into the teens with a shot at some single digits for areas in the north and northeast that have snow on the ground. You can see the low temps for the day here...


Highs today will top out in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday afternoon ahead of our next winter weather maker. I am watching this setup closely for a possible Threat upgrade across parts of the state for late Monday night into Tuesday. The setup is for a VIGOROUS upper level system to dive into the plains states later Monday and Tuesday. This will spawn a weak low pressure across the eastern Ohio Valley with another low moving up the east coast. The big difference between this and the setup we are just coming out of is that temps will be much colder to start and a major blast of cold air scoots in. You can see how this all works out on the GFS Ensembles...




The GFS snowfall is not as tightly wound or as wet as the Ensembles. Here is the latest snowfall map from Tuesday through Wednesday...



The situation for Monday night and Tuesday certainly needs to be watched closely for a period of snow and ice to move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. This could cause a mess for the early Tuesday commute in all areas. Temps will try to go above freezing across the south and southeast for a few hours Tuesday afternoon... but this may happen as a lot of the leading precip shield has already done the damage with snow and ice. That above freezing surge will be VERY short lived as our arctic front slams in by late afternoon and early Evening.

The upper level low will cruse through here through Wednesday with widespread snows that will try to hang on into Thursday morning. Winds will be very gusty and snow ratios should be rather high with the cold temps.This would lead to the potential for some decent snows for the entire region. We are going to make a lot of school kids happy in the week ahead!

By the way. We have all seen the video and pics from the mid atlantic states historic blizzard that just wrapped up. Guess what? Another snowstorm or blizzard will be possible from DC to Boston by the middle of the week! This situation for some areas may get totally out of control with the amount of snow on the ground. This has truly been an historic winter for much of the country and we still have A LOT more winter to go through. The pattern over for the rest of the month looks VERY cold with many more chances for snow.

I will have an update on the early week winter woes with an update later today so be sure to check back. Until then... take care.

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No Time To Rest

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by really quickly for an update before I watch the Cats and crash after a long past couple of days. The time to rest will be short as our next winter weather maker will be moving our way by Monday night to set us up for a very wintry period for the middle and end of next week.

I thought I would tease some of you who missed out on this round of snows. Take a look at a couple shots I grabbed on my iphone this morning from my part of the world...






Here is a cool video of the road conditions from nearby Huntington ,WV that was sent to me by one of my co workers...

As you can see... I didn't blow the forecast for everyone!

We now turn our attention to the next round of wintry weather moving in from Monday night through Friday of next week. The lead system may be enough to qualify as a "storm" around here with snow and a mix for Monday night and Tuesday with snows taking over after that as arctic air takes hold of the pattern. This will be one heck of an arctic front that will slam the region on Tuesday with gusty winds and falling temps. You can see this setup nicely on the GFS Ensembles...



Wicked is a term that comes to mind for the weather around here for the middle and end of next week. Whether or not we get a big snow out of the Tuesday storm... the daily threat of snows will be with us into the end of next week to go along with very cold temps. The pattern shows no signs of breaking down over the next 2 or three weeks at least.

I will have a full update later tonight so check back. Take care.

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Winter Storm Saturday Update

Good Saturday morning everyone. It was a short night for your friendly weatherdude since I worked the did the late shows Friday night and was back in a few hours later this morning on special assignment working the early Saturday morning update. Sleep is so overrated!

The stubborn warm layer of air really cut into the snow totals for a lot of areas. The northern and northeastern parts of the state were the areas where we focused on for the heaviest snows and that is working out pretty good with a good 2"-4" of snow already having fallen since last night. An additional 1"-3" will be possible this morning before the snow tapers off. This is such a wet snow that it is compacting so quickly that you may never have more than 3 or 4 inches on the ground at any one time.

South of the interstate... my forecast has not been very good as the rains held on MUCH longer than I thought. You will switch over to snow this morning... but I simply cannot see more than an inch or two at the MOST! Of course... we didn't forecast much at all in this area... but you get the idea.

The eastern half of the state will see moderate bands of snow moving through here this morning as our upper level low pinwheels through the area. You can track the snows here...



I have some weather cams for you guys to check out. You can see there are plenty of places that DID get in on some good snows...

Kentucky Horse Park Lexington


Ashland


Harrodsburg


I-75 Northern Kentucky
Kentucky: I-71/I-75 at Donaldson Rd.

Kentucky: I-71/I-75 just North of the Richwood Exit

Help us out by posting the weather where you live. Take care everyone.

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Snow Increasing Tonight

Good late Friday evening gang. Things appear to remain on track as we roll into tonight and through the day Saturday. We have our upper level low that will be rolling through during this time and will enhance the snowfall across the entire region with the heaviest falling in the north and northeast.

You can see this potent system showing up in the spin on radar...



I have to admit that the rains held on a tad longer than I thought but that happens sometimes in these setups as timing that junk is impossible. Still... I am not too concerned about the forecast we have out it should verify pretty easily in most areas as the upper low passes through here. It sill snow heavily in a lot of areas late tonight into early Saturday and it will be a wet snow meaning there will be a lot of slush! This is the type of snow that will compact VERY quickly as it accumulates because it is so wet. It is also good for making snowmen.

The NAM continues to show decent snows overnight into Saturday...



That looks a lot like the snowfall map we put out earlier so I am liking what it shows!

Help us out by posting the weather conditions from where you live. It is much appreciated. After this storm... we focus our attention on the next storm that moves our way by Tuesday. This will usher in a snowy and cold period for the middle and end of next week.

Thanks for all you guys do and take care.

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